Do you remember the Icelandic volcano eruption of 2010? Millions were forced to make alternative travel plans as air traffic restrictions came into force.
Now just imagine if all flights around the world were cancelled at the same time.
And, for added drama, unlike the Eyjafjallajökul eruption, you couldn’t phone home or find information on the internet about what was going on.
In fact, you might be sitting in darkness, because the electricity has gone down. It’s not as outlandish as you may think.
The space physics community agrees that the next once-in-100-year solar storm might be coming soon.
Carrington Event explained
The last big one occurred in 1859, and we know this because of a British amateur physicist, Richard Carrington.
He had been drawing a big sunspot using specialist equipment to monitor the Sun and recorded his observations.
Just 17 hours after Carrington confirmed the time of the flash, it was manifesting itself on planet Earth in dramatic fashion.
The Northern Lights were seen as far south as the Caribbean.
Telegraphs worked without electricity.
A magnetometer station in Bombay observed a magnetic disturbance similar in size to the one that caused the 2003 blackout in Malmö, Sweden.
A Carrington storm today
If a Carrington storm occurred today, it would have significant consequences for our digital, hyper-connected society.
An extreme solar event could lead to global air traffic restrictions because of heightened radiation doses at altitude.
Satellites might malfunction and, without access to an atomic clock for precise timings, mobile networks could be unable to connect phone calls.
Without connections to satellites, scientists would struggle to monitor the phenomenon.
The recent solar event that caused the aurora display of May 2024 was not even close to Carrington scale – maybe three to five times smaller than what is expected during the most extreme case.
It’s not, therefore, alarmist to warn that the next extreme space weather event could have a devastating impact on the planet as it grapples with the existential threat of climate change.
What can we do to prepare?
Despite the anxious times we live in, there is hope.
I’m fortunate to be the chair of the Technology Academy Finland which awards the Millennium Technology Prize.
This year is the 20th anniversary of its inauguration, with nominations for the €1 million prize submitted from 28 countries.
In the two decades that the prize has been going, we have witnessed a multitude of innovations that are helping to deliver a better, cleaner and more sustainable world.
But even if the next Carrington storm were to last only a week, it would leave chaos behind and jeopardise this pivot to sustainability.
For this reason, I believe we must monitor our near space as closely as the weather.
This means sending hundreds of satellites to orbit Earth at different altitudes – and so more rocket exhausts in the atmosphere.
Is this a price worth paying? Yes. Because as Carrington realised: if we don’t observe, we can’t predict.
And now, more than ever, we need to predict.
This article appeared in the August 2024 issue of BBC Sky at Night Magazine
